Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2d5924937861d243b37f230ce401d2cd069e7e595fa35ae40dc1da6a5b0ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 60c | 8,044$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.08 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 4,589$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 42c | 4,270$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.09 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634f…8295backed Yes | 67c | 3,011$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 46c | 1,604$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 49c | 1,234$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,214$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.89 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 32c | 819.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.68 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 55c | 750$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 10c | 640.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1,204.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 54c | 552$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 40c | 506$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 45c | 394.17$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.81 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 45c | 284.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 49c | 254.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 53c | 234.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 40c | 215.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 46c | 199.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca96…a629backed Yes | 53c | 188.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +173.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 45c | 159$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 40c | 125.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…b2c7backed Yes | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 45c | 96.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 19c | 70.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed No | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Yes | 46c | 54.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 51c | 48.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 49c | 48.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed No | 47c | 40.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 40c | 27.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Yes | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…7deabacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…9b59backed Yes | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.