Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f96593a72492af152595bbfd693a4001ad7d27aa1d6799b50adfc33e526fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 20c | 506.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 21c | 242.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 17c | 106.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 20c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.