Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd0a3f67a8d07e0998ec7be3a8f275cf5bb748c0661f3d1897480f2bfdf9347d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 42c | 1,200$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 1,166$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.75 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 717.77$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.88 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 497$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 452.24$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed Under | 39c | 223.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 63c | 184.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 64c | 173.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 52c | 49.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 41.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.