Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5c7f3541f9896b0143ae7c2b8af56a2beda12b70a6cc4466aca3c99db302d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Over | 50c | 26,011$13,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,015.31 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500.2 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 8,250$4,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,405.79 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 500.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.26 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 50c | 375$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 201.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 90.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 51c | 43.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Under | 47c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Over | 48c | 36.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 42c | 32.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Under | 50c | 27.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 51c | 25.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 158.5this page
- Spread: UC Irvine Anteaters (-5.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
- Spread: UC Irvine Anteaters (-6.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly MustangsCal Poly Mustangs won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 154.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 155.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 156.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 159.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.