Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd17899591764e53c62ba920ef9d58d29cbe0fcf50d7a0a1f97798996701459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Over | 58c | 52,907$30,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,506.32 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 35,000$14,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,450 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 44c | 25,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,000 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.98 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 58c | 10,256$5,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,948.75 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 7,002$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.53 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 42c | 6,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.99 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 44c | 2,025$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.47 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f674backed Under | 42c | 1,160$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 42c | 715$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.7 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…83e0backed Under | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 44c | 375$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Under | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 114$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 79.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 44c | 76.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 40.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Under | 42c | 38.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Under | 44c | 35.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Over | 47c | 35.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 30c | 35.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 29.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Under | 44c | 27.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 25.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 43c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 156.5this page
- Spread: UC Irvine Anteaters (-5.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
- Spread: UC Irvine Anteaters (-6.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly MustangsCal Poly Mustangs won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 154.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 155.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 158.5Under won
- UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 159.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.