College Football · resolved market
Spread: Buffalo (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd73a522f7517aa72b185e38edc673adcb2d4461aca4cb3477892cc35abea7c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Akronof Buffalo, Akron
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Akron | 50c | 136,398$67,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,399 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Buffalo | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…e40fbacked Buffalo | 50c | 66,229$33,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,114.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…e415backed Akron | 50c | 60,000$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…d2d0backed Akron | 50c | 58,145$29,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,072.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Akron | 49c | 53,965$26,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,617.94 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Buffalo | 51c | 44,758$22,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,828.33 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…1176backed Akron | 50c | 35,000$17,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42e1backed Buffalo | 50c | 20,057$10,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,028.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Buffalo | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…938ebacked Buffalo | 50c | 13,699$6,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,849.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…72e9backed Buffalo | 50c | 12,757$6,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,378.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Buffalo | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buffalo | 51c | 9,083$4,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,670.25 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6982backed Buffalo | 50c | 8,596$4,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…174bbacked Buffalo | 50c | 7,314$3,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424f…99d6backed Buffalo | 50c | 6,526$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…2702backed Buffalo | 50c | 5,362$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Buffalo | 51c | 4,122$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.22 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…63adbacked Buffalo | 50c | 3,147$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…aea0backed Buffalo | 50c | 2,681$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…6351backed Buffalo | 50c | 1,822$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…26bdbacked Buffalo | 50c | 1,155$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…62edbacked Buffalo | 50c | 852$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…904bbacked Buffalo | 50c | 848$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Akron | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Buffalo | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb21…8062backed Buffalo | 50c | 593$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…f481backed Buffalo | 50c | 508$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…a834backed Buffalo | 50c | 445$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0c…2524backed Buffalo | 50c | 312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70aa…15f8backed Buffalo | 50c | 242$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Akron | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Buffalo | 50c | 56.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Akron | 47c | 49.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…90bdbacked Buffalo | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Buffalo | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buffalo (-9.5)this page
- Akron vs. BuffaloAkron won
- Akron vs. Buffalo: O/U 47.5Under won
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Buffalo (-10.5)Akron won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.