Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7aeca9a172ac2d8ba18564f00458279ad3eeed4ee3d599fbf321feaf683124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 2,049$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.84 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 21c | 1,588$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…3d37backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…dc3cbacked No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 21c | 361.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 193.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 187.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 21c | 144.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 80c | 143.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed Yes | 20c | 109.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 79c | 93.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…f9dfbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…ab31backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.