MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9822ee407dc0d78e9f15cbb88aafb239f6b26e96863624217e3a72e6cfecdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Soxof Red Sox, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x407c…6778backed Blue Jays | 40c | 30,600$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…9081backed Red Sox | 60c | 30,200$18,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,080 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…78f5backed Blue Jays | 42c | 2,408$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 58c | 2,361$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.62 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Red Sox | 61c | 1,925$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.34 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 42c | 1,561$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 44c | 455$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Blue Jays | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…70ddbacked Red Sox | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Red Sox | 60c | 394.66$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox | 57c | 295$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Red Sox | 56c | 223$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blue Jays | 40c | 78.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 55c | 57.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Blue Jays | 41c | 42.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Red Sox | 57c | 42.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 57c | 41.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Blue Jays | 44c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Red Sox | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Red Sox | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.