Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb120cccf82f38b895db63f7bc8da2335bad3126ddd711dee6ca9f9e786c6c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03a7…affbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,005$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 34c | 213.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 213.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 18c | 182.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 179.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…7f70backed Yes | 42c | 170.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 22c | 144.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 137.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 125.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 64c | 120.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 117.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 68c | 112.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 77c | 101.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 98.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 96.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 31c | 83.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 79.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 69c | 74.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 30c | 72.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 71.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 31c | 70.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 71c | 68.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 77c | 52.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 73c | 50.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 35c | 39.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 80c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 75c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 32.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 34c | 30.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 55c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…6b03backed No | 62c | 25.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 64c | 25.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…a1cdbacked Yes | 44c | 23.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.