South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb2ccd7b0b8e797429c7cb0a7b008c11f4c3c59cd19a37db5986b59234f35d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 2,553$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…ad34backed Yes | 29c | 1,675$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 1,004$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.06 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 330.43$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 5c | 310$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 21c | 208.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 23c | 160.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 23c | 160.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 34c | 112.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 13c | 112.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 96.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…9908backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 69.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed No | 80c | 55.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 28c | 41.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will Club Puebla win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.