South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5853ec591ecf29a3eba2bc9ebfcbaf7e2eab84b6878127ce59829b8d4ec05be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Yes | 64c | 26,162$16,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,418.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 36c | 11,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 9,619$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 36c | 6,577$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.5 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 62c | 6,424$4,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.28 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 37c | 2,907$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.59 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 24c | 2,118$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.06 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 36c | 2,064$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.75 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 32c | 1,490$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.87 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Yes | 71c | 1,170$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 30c | 929.13$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed No | 38c | 784.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 33c | 757.7$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 36c | 592.89$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 8c | 568.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 36c | 558.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 32c | 546.27$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 65c | 490$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 63c | 462.9$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.27 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 23c | 440.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 388$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 63c | 349.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked No | 24c | 306.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…07f5backed No | 21c | 304.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 298.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 70c | 286.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 27c | 272.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Yes | 6c | 264.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 24c | 257.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 65c | 244.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 54c | 199.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked No | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 79c | 190.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 62c | 161.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 149.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 11c | 145.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 75c | 101.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed No | 36c | 92.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 37c | 83.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143a…51c0backed Yes | 72c | 74.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 37c | 71.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed No | 36c | 68.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 37c | 66.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…a693backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 79c | 59.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked No | 38c | 48.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked Yes | 78c | 45.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 37c | 35.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 43c | 32.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…9908backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…2f2dbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b098backed Yes | 63c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Yes | 66c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…3c57backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…9294backed Yes | 70c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Puebla win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.