TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,861 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes6c268.41$17 inLost-$17.44,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes24c200$49 inLost-$48.9245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes19c198.86$38 inLost-$37.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c188.54$130 inWon+$58.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c182.23$49 inLost-$49.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c175.57$137 inWon+$38.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes10c171.25$16 inLost-$16.481,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes23c149.9$35 inLost-$34.6868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No79c147.88$116 inWon+$31.651,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c145.34$32 inLost-$31.569,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe4f…b7b7backed No80c81.18$65 inWon+$16.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes14c72.26$10 inLost-$10.1723436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c68.38$54 inWon+$14.291,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c68.3$18 inLost-$18.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$14.8542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes43c50$21 inLost-$21.4334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No79c47$37 inWon+$10.091,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No77c29.76$23 inWon+$6.753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c29.73$19 inWon+$114,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No65c28.32$18 inWon+$9.9919764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No64c25$16 inWon+$91,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed No80c24.84$20 inWon+$4.9718033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…13b5backed No75c20.11$15 inWon+$5.112268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe14a…c6c8backed No68c16.8$11 inWon+$5.436459.4%38 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No77c16.6$13 inWon+$3.8212363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.