Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x233cbf12c51dba3a706a817210c3e1ad4cfe8e308ab2957b938ae8f75aa72fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 6c | 674.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 245$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 48c | 235.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 25c | 191.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 178.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 49c | 158.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 145.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 132.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 125.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 50c | 117.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…c5dbbacked No | 59c | 117.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 108.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 102.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 37c | 93.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 31c | 90.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 87.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 48c | 81.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 71.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 66.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 60.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 43c | 59.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 18c | 59.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 56c | 57.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 45.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 42.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 48c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 31.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 70c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…b421backed No | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 68c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…2530backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.