Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2551f8d9ea30e200a3c8fae9f96c55e000ad4d4c116a405d405a095446735efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 60c | 375.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 291.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes | 49c | 198.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 186.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 32c | 165.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 11c | 152.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 148.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 56c | 142.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 132.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 64c | 103.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 48c | 102.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 100.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 45c | 96.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 64c | 77.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 74.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 72.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 54c | 71.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 53c | 67.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 39c | 64.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 61.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 59.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 50.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed Yes | 37c | 48.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 57c | 39.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 37.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 55c | 37.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 37.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 36.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 74c | 31.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 29.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 57c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 27.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 66c | 25.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 61c | 23.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 59c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 61c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.