Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-22.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe19513dd5e8981e8da6ba4485e4cff71c40de70cb0a1fad8f66814ddaa98954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Golden Gophersof Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Minnesota Golden Gophers | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 2,478$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.52 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 571.88$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Minnesota Golden Gophers | 52c | 373.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 35c | 283.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Minnesota Golden Gophers | 53c | 214.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Minnesota Golden Gophers | 52c | 185.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Golden Gophers | 53c | 106.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 96.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Golden Gophers | 51c | 56.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Minnesota Golden Gophers | 52c | 19.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-22.5)this page
- Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 145.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-21.5)Minnesota Golden Gophers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.