Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Conference League final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6c1f704fcdf69b1e5339b96454041bc2e2efceaefde6350ec1acef07e243e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 3c | 3,453$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 4c | 2,028$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 3c | 1,393$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked No | 3c | 1,140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81df…d751backed Yes | 72c | 1,090$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5721…6746backed Yes | 75c | 1,036$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 73c | 763.85$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.97 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 28c | 500.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…c9d8backed Yes | 75c | 397.33$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4448…90dabacked No | 60c | 192.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…0b94backed No | 60c | 187.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1485…f7e2backed No | 60c | 187.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…20e7backed No | 60c | 186.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…b3d9backed No | 60c | 184.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8823…4eeabacked No | 60c | 183.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e6…3544backed No | 60c | 182.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d3…0be7backed No | 60c | 182.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…206dbacked No | 60c | 182.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…01eabacked No | 60c | 182.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…2ff7backed No | 60c | 182.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…7efbbacked No | 60c | 181.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…6b73backed No | 60c | 180.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…b297backed No | 60c | 179.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…5f71backed No | 60c | 164.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Yes | 75c | 46.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked No | 30c | 45.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Conference League final?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Conference League final?Yes won
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk reach the UEFA Conference League final?No won
- Will Strasbourg reach the UEFA Conference League final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.