Tennis · resolved market
Hobart International, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Kaja Juvan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeaa23cc60ad26161b48cf0f3735ff1f6905100904d65258122be9846e8d535f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McNallyof McNally, Juvan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juvan | 9c | 7,968$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Juvan | 14c | 6,837$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.33 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Juvan | 15c | 1,689$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.41 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked McNally | 76c | 1,471$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.94 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Juvan | 16c | 1,265$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Juvan | 44c | 1,129$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.32 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed McNally | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Juvan | 15c | 612.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Juvan | 20c | 520$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Juvan | 5c | 491.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Juvan | 15c | 461.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Juvan | 8c | 290.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Juvan | 38c | 263.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Juvan | 5c | 247.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Juvan | 34c | 227.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Juvan | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Juvan | 16c | 137.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…ee1bbacked Juvan | 11c | 134.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed McNally | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Juvan | 18c | 115.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Juvan | 44c | 107.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked McNally | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Juvan | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed McNally | 79c | 98.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 62cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Juvan | 16c | 80.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Juvan | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…96c8backed Juvan | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked McNally | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed McNally | 65c | 69.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Juvan | 19c | 55.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4321backed McNally | 79c | 47.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed McNally | 78c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b9…f126backed McNally | 79c | 38.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked McNally | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed McNally | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…ff4abacked McNally | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed McNally | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed McNally | 75c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…62c9backed McNally | 79c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…903fbacked McNally | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.