CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - ANZC Locals Brisbane: Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebddd7d404951a1c1d3db218a4a8e9483bd83de38973080c23b6a4045d9c40a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof SemperFi Esports, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,684 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a42…4930backed Arcade Esports | 11c | 435.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Arcade Esports | 15c | 364$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…4cf3backed Arcade Esports | 9c | 339.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Arcade Esports | 13c | 319.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Arcade Esports | 10c | 260.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Arcade Esports | 10c | 211.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Arcade Esports | 8c | 195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…dfd9backed Arcade Esports | 11c | 184.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked Arcade Esports | 11c | 180.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arcade Esports | 12c | 119.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…f07dbacked Arcade Esports | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…b779backed Arcade Esports | 15c | 95.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed SemperFi Esports | 66c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed SemperFi Esports | 73c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.