Middle East · resolved market
New EU country recognizes Palestine before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec13dcf904124ca4ac8f441cfde963528338a4cf48f2cd3e0eed5debf17d487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe62c…342ebacked No | 5c | 4,025$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613d…d946backed No | 14c | 1,608$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…85f2backed No | 4c | 1,528$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 5c | 808.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed No | 5c | 784.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 66c | 280.01$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…17d3backed No | 6c | 277.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 6c | 249.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…4952backed No | 7c | 220.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 76c | 105.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…4810backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 30c | 64.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…39c1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.