Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed649ee723517dfcfdacaef42a9cb12d9ae23e5cae355e1739a94a7f4bae7d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahoma Soonersof Michigan State Spartans, Oklahoma Sooners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,745 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Oklahoma Sooners | 66c | 1,336$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.05 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 26c | 1,136$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Oklahoma Sooners | 74c | 1,013$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oklahoma Sooners | 64c | 900.17$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.89 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 20c | 402.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Michigan State Spartans | 27c | 384.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Oklahoma Sooners | 75c | 313.13$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…fcf3backed Oklahoma Sooners | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Michigan State Spartans | 25c | 228$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oklahoma Sooners | 69c | 188.28$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 171.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 65c | 164$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Michigan State Spartans | 9c | 163.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Michigan State Spartans | 29c | 112.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oklahoma Sooners | 71c | 102.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Michigan State Spartans | 23c | 98.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…1c5dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 35c | 95.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 72c | 83.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Oklahoma Sooners | 71c | 80.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Oklahoma Sooners | 71c | 70.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michigan State Spartans | 28c | 70.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Michigan State Spartans | 30c | 65.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Oklahoma Sooners | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Oklahoma Sooners | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Michigan State Spartans | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Oklahoma Sooners | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 67c | 26.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Oklahoma Sooners | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Oklahoma Sooners | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.