Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef484464c4807ce74584d9d05c21da4bb5d4c2ef9f58d8a534af2170b06878e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 47c | 3,072$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.75 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…3287backed Yes | 50c | 1,031$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.82 | 210 | 48.6%102 W · 108 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 56c | 998.49$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.24 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 50c | 803.58$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.34 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 451.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 44c | 370.45$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 67c | 260.84$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…c70fbacked Yes | 51c | 254.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…7c03backed Yes | 58c | 215.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 214.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Yes | 23c | 182$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 56c | 174.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 57c | 174.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 166.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…ec81backed Yes | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 286 | 26.9%77 W · 209 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 149.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 239 | 51.9%124 W · 115 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Yes | 37c | 124.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 441 | 30.8%136 W · 305 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 56c | 89.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…4575backed Yes | 48c | 83.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…2ee8backed Yes | 20c | 64.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 44c | 63.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…b2fabacked No | 44c | 54.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 52c | 38.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 44c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 33.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 25.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked No | 49c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 44c | 23.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico leading at halftime?this page
- Mexico vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime?No won
- Serbia leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.