Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ab3a13d5f95dd08e42b58183ef779dd1c2aee8e3882f1b837524de55e6af0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 1,588$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.2 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 33c | 612.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 493.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…8688backed Yes | 73c | 343$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 57c | 291$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 215.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 25c | 213.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 79c | 99.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…da1bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 300 | 40.3%121 W · 179 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b5a2backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed No | 67c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.33per pick | 52cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 62c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime?this page
- Mexico leading at halftime?Yes won
- Serbia leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.