Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Shunsuke Mitsui
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff39db00e201e565c8768eb994dc5a18610d4a26ce6b61d0dc7897a1dca441f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shunsuke Mitsuiof Taiyo Yamanaka, Shunsuke Mitsui
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 27c | 7,329$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.61 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 69c | 3,167$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.51 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 66c | 2,845$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.18 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 79c | 1,150$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 75c | 533.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 27c | 511.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 75c | 302$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…9af1backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 10c | 174.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 18c | 109.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 34c | 96.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 69c | 95.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 15c | 95.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 15c | 92.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 28c | 73.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 37c | 61.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 71c | 58.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Astana: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Shunsuke Mitsuithis page
- ITF Men Astana: Completed Match: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Shunsuke MitsuiYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.