Tennis · resolved market
ITF Laval: Matthew Thomson vs Keegan Rice
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff63b648397412a0e43380fa0b53cd6b03b0f963b8c23fde98de7e650280f769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keegan Riceof Matthew Thomson, Keegan Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Matthew Thomson | 16c | 3,750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Matthew Thomson | 23c | 1,194$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.35 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Matthew Thomson | 24c | 818.3$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Matthew Thomson | 20c | 391$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Matthew Thomson | 17c | 319$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Matthew Thomson | 17c | 287.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Matthew Thomson | 8c | 156.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Matthew Thomson | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Matthew Thomson | 23c | 80.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Matthew Thomson | 19c | 62.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Matthew Thomson | 17c | 58.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Keegan Rice | 80c | 28.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Rice | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.