Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff80b8316ea429a41ece7c98ff65c69dbda1e11dc73989336cb8be76bc25f7b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 0c | 3,540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 36c | 284.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 32c | 234.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 233.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 176.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 151$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 124.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…5e65backed Yes | 44c | 106.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 87.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 66.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 34c | 64.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 58.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 54c | 58.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 59c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 35.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.