NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8a89f143d6e62ad64a6b52d000043839cf270a9e51d484b1ade5d5f7b85715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Under | 45c | 7,548$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf17b…d0a7backed Over | 55c | 7,300$4,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 2,513$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.72 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 2,347$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.68 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,886$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728d…87e2backed Under | 44c | 1,020$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 56c | 899.84$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.47 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 55c | 499.99$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…c977backed Over | 56c | 420$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 45c | 373.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…5fcabacked Over | 56c | 330$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 44c | 292.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…78a7backed Over | 56c | 270$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ebabbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Over | 56c | 164.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 64c | 154$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 44c | 147.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 43c | 145.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 56c | 76.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 54c | 50.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…b227backed Over | 57c | 44.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 43c | 42.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Over | 54c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. UtahUtah won
- Flyers vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.