Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa3f4124c2fa0c7a58542ddfbb0312eeca8b7c93021948c781211638dbddc11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 14c | 926.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…935bbacked No | 2c | 767.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 391.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 14c | 310.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 47c | 302.72$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 170.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 44c | 142.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 138.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 56c | 135.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 53c | 121.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 72c | 106.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 84.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 61c | 79.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 49c | 76.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 75.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 51c | 72.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 29c | 71.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 66.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 61c | 47.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 45.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed No | 49c | 34.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 52c | 33.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 57c | 32.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 57c | 31.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 30.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 46c | 29.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 45c | 26.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 50c | 24.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…d10abacked No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.