TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Adriatik Lapaj be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes0c19,273$19 inLost-$19.27540%0 W · 54 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9a…8160backed Yes1c3,543$27 inLost-$26.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b73…4045backed Yes1c2,914$15 inLost-$14.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21bf…5b91backed Yes0c2,490$11 inLost-$10.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f5a…6ca4backed Yes1c1,661$14 inLost-$14.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc08…908dbacked Yes1c1,558$14 inLost-$13.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f0…770dbacked Yes1c1,383$12 inLost-$11.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…8563backed Yes1c1,356$12 inLost-$12.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a9…4919backed Yes1c1,331$14 inLost-$13.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…db3ebacked Yes1c1,324$11 inLost-$11.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…5d1fbacked Yes1c1,322$13 inLost-$12.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…db3abacked Yes1c1,202$10 inLost-$10.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdabc…06f8backed Yes1c1,190$11 inLost-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1e…c8b2backed Yes1c1,128$10 inLost-$10.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8df…0c62backed Yes3c517.96$13 inLost-$13.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.