Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffdb98aabd1f3ddaa9db7a2e204d84e7aa2c7cbb1e80735550edffc7d9af9f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,080 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 6,441$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…b0e1backed Under | 60c | 5,020$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Over | 40c | 3,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 1,544$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.95 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 33c | 1,127$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.3 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 28c | 1,075$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.06 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 511.3$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…7e3abacked Over | 44c | 483.93$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 44c | 454$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under | 62c | 443$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 40c | 259.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 44c | 226.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 133.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 124.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 40c | 111.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 80c | 96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 39c | 87.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 60c | 72.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 71.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 68c | 56.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 55c | 55.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 63c | 53.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 71c | 42.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 60c | 36.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 40c | 28.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 61c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.