Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca4119a3fd5ce691fb0d80d142e1dbad91c6871788f5c91e5ffbec2a87d4fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,401 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Under | 38c | 21,772$8,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,498.8 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 62c | 5,695$3,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,530.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Over | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,991$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.51 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 25c | 1,242$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 61c | 599.87$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.92 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 540.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 62c | 536.11$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 473.68$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 351.08$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 62c | 339.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.19 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 39c | 204.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 187.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 79c | 169.85$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 41c | 163.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 62c | 162.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 151.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 62c | 133$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 62c | 132.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 79c | 114.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Over | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Under | 40c | 85.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 37c | 70.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 60c | 57.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Under | 27c | 53.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 52.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Over | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 62c | 41.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 62c | 36.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Over | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.