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EventMiddle East

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

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Middle EastSettled: Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? (opens in a new tab)

Settled: No won. Yes: 17 wallets, $17,409 · No: 4 wallets, $1,434 4 of 21 wallets backed the winner.

What these columns mean
Wallet
A wallet that was in the top 200 of Middle East when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.
Side
The side of this market the wallet's pick was on.
Result
Whether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.
Staked
What the wallet paid for its pick on this side.
Entry
The average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.
Held to the end
What the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
The pick on this marketSettled markets
WalletA wallet that was in the top 200 of Middle East when this market was played, or in its top 50 for a market played before 1 November 2026, with its place on that board tonight. The top 50 of the time come first. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place for as long as its score would still put it there: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there.SideThe side of this market the wallet's pick was on.ResultWhether that side won. A pick is held to the end: it is won or lost even if the wallet sold before the market settled.StakedWhat the wallet paid for its pick on this side.EntryThe average price the wallet paid on its side, in cents.Held to the endWhat the pick made or lost held to the end, at its entry price. It is not what the wallet cashed: it may have sold before the market settled.Tail ScoreThe number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
0xde09…dbde#10 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$116c-$1162
0x0314…2f6d#60 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$7114c-$71.1159
0xeb22…808a#77 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$15015c-$15058
0x7678…22a3#83 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$87413c-$873.5158
0x2106…4deaNo place on the board tonightYeslost (open this pick)$8,83613c-$8,836.1558
Top 51 to 200
0x386c…8323#62 on the boardNowon (open this pick)$29074c+$100.9959
0xb23e…829a#91 on the boardNowon (open this pick)$68576c+$21558
0x8cc5…f5e1#96 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$21917c-$218.857
0x3c59…1766#114 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$3,51119c-$3,510.7657
0xac76…9359#137 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$159c-$15.0156
0xd7f1…73cd#179 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$7719c-$7755
0x0ef9…8f58#182 on the boardNowon (open this pick)$3077c+$8.8955
0x5ad9…f29d#192 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$1938c-$1955
0x2bae…ec80#205 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$2010c-$2055
0x7500…567f#216 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$712c-$71.0655
0x5a0d…fa97#242 on the boardNowon (open this pick)$43077c+$127.6555
0x44b7…2e99#255 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$23711c-$236.9354
0x6992…6c1d#285 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$2,8667c-$2,865.8354
0xd75a…fdec#296 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$29819c-$298.1354
0xeda8…6ca8#321 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$10014c-$10054
0x392d…21a1#367 on the boardYeslost (open this pick)$3516c-$35.253
About this page

A settled market shows the wallets that were in the top 200 when it was played, the same wallets its open page showed, with the pick each one held to the end and whether it won. Their place on the board is tonight's. A market played before 1 November 2026, when we began to keep the top 200, shows the top 50 of that time.