Europa Conference League · resolved market
HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x002aa884f5e92138a45f287dcb9977b5e24166841d7aebc220a501aa77d7dfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 46c | 3,209$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.51 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 2,655$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 816.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 46c | 163.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 46c | 124.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 101.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 42c | 101.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 55c | 86.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 55c | 75.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 24c | 68.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Under | 59c | 68.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…3d69backed Under | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 80c | 14.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5this page
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 0.5Over won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 2.5Over won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5Under won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 5.5Under won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: Team to AdvanceKF Valur won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-1.5)KF Valur won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-2.5)KF Valur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.