Europa Conference League · resolved market
HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e22b5f7f52b2202d6dcc1e121013d33a0e7cd7a653898ac042d57b868fde335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 6,546$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.85 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,548$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.44 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,505$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.77 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8224…7384backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 1,030$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 1,006$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.88 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 65c | 454.73$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 44c | 346.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 232.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 46c | 107.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 61c | 105.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…8206backed Over | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 96.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 46c | 38.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 76c | 36.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…1834backed Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 76c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5this page
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 0.5Over won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 2.5Over won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5Over won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: O/U 5.5Under won
- HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur: Team to AdvanceKF Valur won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-1.5)KF Valur won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-2.5)KF Valur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.