Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0031861c11ffc5fdb310d5fe22eaa2d309b656bbde03a5431866692361cca731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,313$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.24 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 23c | 1,248$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 734.65$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.02 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 42c | 706.16$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 428.48$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…e584backed Under | 56c | 346$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…8677backed Under | 56c | 324$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Over | 42c | 250.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 11c | 249.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…0b39backed Under | 56c | 201$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…bb32backed Under | 56c | 187$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…7debbacked Over | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…d3a9backed Over | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 41c | 149.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7213…6835backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 12c | 119.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…9b44backed Over | 44c | 114.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…eb0fbacked Over | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be8…d401backed Over | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…eb76backed Over | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4f…c455backed Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…8e2fbacked Over | 44c | 102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…2e44backed Over | 44c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 60c | 50.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 56c | 33.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.