Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857b0b76fa8a3601a4c7a3c3453398af9940686e4b7aa31bea7d73ef3cc165aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,160$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 46c | 2,099$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.66 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 42c | 1,213$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 623.73$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 51c | 612$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.78 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 64c | 465.88$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…6ee2backed Over | 78c | 405.78$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 52c | 383.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 286.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…a350backed Over | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…7cc9backed Over | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed Under | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 24cpaid | +330.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…c3dcbacked Under | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 52c | 243.3$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 52c | 192.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 53c | 134.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Under | 54c | 116.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 65c | 91.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 15c | 86.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 14c | 82.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 64.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 25c | 62.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…374bbacked Over | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 73c | 47.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 35.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…985ebacked Under | 37c | 30.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 37c | 29.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Over | 52c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.