Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004aecb8022484e4e380515dcec9a1fc46d83caae99a1464d2d8d3caba44cd7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Movistar KOIof Movistar KOI, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x532b…30c1backed Movistar KOI | 53c | 1,124$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.61 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,005$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.85 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 637.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.01 | 1,389 | 37.7%524 W · 865 L | -45.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Movistar KOI | 36c | 570$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.7 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…9680backed Movistar KOI | 31c | 258.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 231.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 488 | 47.3%231 W · 257 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 194.72$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 164.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Movistar KOI | 55c | 155.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 978 | 54.4%532 W · 446 L | +48.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…c175backed Movistar KOI | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 407 | 26.8%109 W · 298 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…6834backed Movistar KOI | 30c | 138$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…a468backed Movistar KOI | 46c | 105.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Movistar KOI | 51c | 93.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Movistar KOI | 42c | 88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Movistar KOI | 27c | 56.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Movistar KOI | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Movistar KOI | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 23.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 639 | 44.6%285 W · 354 L | -18.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)Movistar KOI won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonMovistar KOI won
- LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerMovistar KOI won
- LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerMovistar KOI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.