Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0054b96491280169428b7dc207736031ad23ef78bd4e47665e5047a70db70657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 13,002$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 78c | 1,682$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.73 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 48c | 1,515$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.12 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 1,366$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 469.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 365$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 273.8$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 14c | 165.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…092ebacked Yes | 25c | 163.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +117%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f1…362cbacked Yes | 51c | 88.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 46c | 73.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yes | 36c | 43.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked No | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.