Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8b2b823af48bd9c903bd41f9409234dda2a80fe3927cacdf773df06be7d641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cd1…da1cbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes | 34c | 6,618$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 76c | 6,257$4,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.13 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,808$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.23 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 2,501$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 2,144$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 1,924$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.96 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Yes | 19c | 1,920$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 999.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 14c | 883.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 66c | 824.24$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.24 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 14c | 481.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 450.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 8c | 326$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 15c | 274$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 15c | 263.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 181$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 173$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 68c | 133.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 19c | 111.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 108.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked No | 68c | 101.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 72c | 90.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 16c | 90.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…4a59backed No | 71c | 63.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0a6dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…b82cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…815bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.