TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No50c15,556$7,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,730.23,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes43c14,999$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.433357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes65c13,741$8,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,777.123063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No35c4,922$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.754228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No35c4,625$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.333141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed No51c4,348$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.435347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No34c4,193$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.6619153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked No47c2,294$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70023046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.984524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No35c1,963$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.059552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No34c1,578$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.7476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes65c1,549$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.11776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes65c1,363$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.084963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No37c1,097$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.612,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c13…ee33backed Yes39c1,030$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.78785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick39cpaid+145.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea7a…446bbacked Yes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.724753.2%25 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes46c738.52$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.83537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes53c641.51$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No47c635.01$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5110347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes64c608.77$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.621973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked No35c591.37$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.116451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes64c570$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.510057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0148…daf8backed Yes65c560$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.52548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes66c500.01$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17012651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2309951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes63c494.48$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9119347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.547967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Yes65c430.77$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.771070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes48c430$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5622332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No34c406.83$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.323050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes54c388.66$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.66785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+84.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No28c354.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked No36c348.29$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6211…513bbacked Yes64c340.63$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Yes65c307.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.86344.4%28 W · 35 L+9.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes57c302.59$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.592650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1334…3c35backed Yes65c286.15$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes41c275$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.252540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No48c274.86$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Yes65c261.54$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.543876.3%29 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes64c260.91$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.931850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes63c249.99$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No48c246.5$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.31947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes47c246$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.221041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Yes46c230.33$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+90.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No52c224.75$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No36c204.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.454942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2816…0730backed No36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Yes57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Yes58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes48c165.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.841546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed Yes62c161.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.785166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c157$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2519943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ea…3470backed Yes65c154.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.55850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.854949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9e…19ddbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3623…b50dbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a5f…446bbacked Yes66c151.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.531163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd29b…b518backed Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.52977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No35c149.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes67c149.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes47c145.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.263551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes47c140.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.962240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.410235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No36c139.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…c123backed Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.894100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28e6…0dfabacked Yes66c137.3$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.31770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Yes45c131.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.113161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f18…5388backed Yes64c129.2$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes64c126.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.561747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked Yes64c124.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.068169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes65c123.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.088531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes65c121.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.58475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf2…85b7backed Yes58c120.4$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeac5…7960backed Yes65c120.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4caf…6de9backed Yes65c115.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Yes53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.216546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1346…8502backed Yes46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.72437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.72152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes46c107.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.066439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb16e…eff7backed Yes65c104.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.58366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716d…eaf2backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+117%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…7ed4backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe172…274ebacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbed8…f07fbacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132a…79aebacked Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3914846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…3e9fbacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+47.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee44…0082backed Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Yes64c93.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.755347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89de…9bc9backed Yes57c93.53$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.