Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x005b73c5d325bdbca8503a2d125976ec4ce0e99805d42000dc960b16666150bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 73,662$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 4c | 1,092$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 809.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 62c | 609.84$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.37 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 566.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 513.7$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 377.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.85 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 55c | 249.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 10c | 248.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 15c | 224.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 186.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 137.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 79c | 136.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 11c | 117.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 29c | 104.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 20c | 93.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 17c | 89.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 58c | 75.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…7280backed No | 18c | 74.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…95c3backed Yes | 54c | 67.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 33c | 66.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…dc76backed Yes | 74c | 53.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 31c | 51.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 75c | 49.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…db45backed No | 26c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Yes | 73c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 71c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 38.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 33.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 30.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 70c | 26.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 71c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 25.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 76c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…1a27backed No | 69c | 20.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…ffa3backed No | 69c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 72c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.