Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x484a148f393b44590e9a4777829c515c4a5226e37336d8c13a98a19fc41c73c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 5c | 560.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 43c | 515.15$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 67c | 460.96$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 46c | 409.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 48c | 364.14$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.79 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 343.35$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 70c | 338.81$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.81 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 46c | 332.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 299.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 76c | 299.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 293.74$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 60c | 266.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 71c | 240.49$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 48c | 214.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 211.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 69c | 211.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 46c | 200.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 140.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 20c | 135.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 24c | 129.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 42c | 127.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 126.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…4526backed Yes | 79c | 123.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed Yes | 79c | 119.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 115.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 33c | 103.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 70c | 102.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 42c | 90.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 31c | 89.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 27c | 89.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 49c | 88.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 85.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 57c | 85.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 32c | 84.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 82.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 82.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 32c | 80.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 59c | 79.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…af53backed No | 36c | 78.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 32c | 77.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 44c | 76.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 27c | 73.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 53c | 72.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 69c | 70.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 78c | 68.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 44c | 67.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 66.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 20c | 62.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 28c | 62.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 73c | 59.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 80c | 57.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 56.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 69c | 55.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…dc76backed Yes | 51c | 55.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 55.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 49c | 55.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 74c | 54.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 36c | 53.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 54c | 52.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 64c | 50.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 73c | 49.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 58c | 49.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 36c | 48.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 55c | 48.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 21c | 47.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f63…a5a3backed Yes | 52c | 46.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed Yes | 57c | 44.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…d35fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 74c | 40.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b440backed Yes | 36c | 39.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 38.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…e544backed Yes | 74c | 37.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 37c | 37.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed Yes | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 75c | 34.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 30c | 33.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 34c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 49c | 32.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 70c | 32.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 79c | 31.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed Yes | 51c | 30.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 29.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.