TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres73c7,074$5,144 inWon+$1,929.8410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners27c6,568$1,770 inLost-$1,770.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Seattle Mariners42c2,381$1,000 inLost-$1,0007934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres58c1,036$601 inWon+$43565549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres58c1,000$580 inWon+$4201,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Seattle Mariners33c298.57$100 inLost-$10030452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners27c250$68 inLost-$67.51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked San Diego Padres60c170$102 inWon+$6848354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres58c170$99 inWon+$71.41,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres60c137.63$83 inWon+$55.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Seattle Mariners40c120$48 inLost-$4857548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed San Diego Padres60c68.81$41 inWon+$27.767558.7%44 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Seattle Mariners36c43.19$16 inLost-$15.6132550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners40c39.98$16 inLost-$15.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres59c18.03$11 inWon+$7.392,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed San Diego Padres59c17$10 inWon+$6.973231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.