MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76cbab8bbe6a4c4582c7902cdaa0a97f787c5bb7206f5b08015b1e1c440ae5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 46c | 109,308$50,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,298.42 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 70,000$37,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,800 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,750 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 4,988$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 2,902$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 2,407$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Over | 47c | 2,223$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.37 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 55c | 1,294$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.7 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,152$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,115$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 40c | 1,107$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.49 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 927.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.65 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 810.08$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 357.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 309.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 54c | 280.3$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 271.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 201.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Under | 55c | 164.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 34c | 109.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 77c | 73.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 45c | 58.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 46c | 51.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.