Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01386bb6bb7a494ea42ee7035cb5cd6ecc6d00fa505ddd71a5d97c0ddda61e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nagoya Grampusof Vissel Kōbe, Nagoya Grampus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vissel Kōbe | 16c | 472.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Vissel Kōbe | 22c | 309.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Vissel Kōbe | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Nagoya Grampus | 78c | 148.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Nagoya Grampus | 78c | 148.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Nagoya Grampus | 78c | 148.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Nagoya Grampus | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Vissel Kōbe | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…0e52backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Vissel Kōbe | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 45.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Nagoya Grampus | 78c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Nagoya Grampus | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.