Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26962f50a07d8f09d3912b9dcb6ea6195da9b9859643304a058133c583514651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 431.27$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 262.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 43c | 124.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 47c | 116.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 43c | 79.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 53c | 77.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…0fefbacked Over | 46c | 68.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 68.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +56.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 57.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 377 | 59.4%224 W · 153 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 57c | 52.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 24c | 41.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…8758backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 77c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.