Asian League · resolved market
Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe462c8de3eb6d2cc7368e191615a98a38e52739b954113cad2c14fdf8c1ac53e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 60c | 1,677$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 817.77$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.9 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 30c | 662.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 76c | 657.36$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…f25cbacked Under | 75c | 438.87$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…a350backed Over | 25c | 438.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 64c | 276$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 41c | 241.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 200.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 19c | 180$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 78c | 159$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 22c | 159$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 142.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 39c | 132.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 41c | 120.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 41c | 120.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 41c | 120.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 67c | 118.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 34c | 106.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 104.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 41c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 72c | 90.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 39c | 84.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 37c | 77.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 41c | 72.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 40c | 55.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 67c | 51.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +27.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…0c22backed Under | 78c | 17.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.