WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0138c401a23afc65ea93b4722928e158b66574acbda2c87b692ce4c7d7fe66e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Sparksof Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 2,840$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.98 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 2,295$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.82 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 1,922$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.7 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 1,250$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.42 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 800$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 665.75$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 511.16$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.35 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 207.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 126.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 122.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 106.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 104.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 103.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 96.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 60.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 54.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 52.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 39.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 35.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 33.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 32.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 29.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 25.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…b54abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)this page
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas AcesLos Angeles Sparks won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)Los Angeles Sparks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.