Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0165ffda354f86060e25a9099f094de4b8b5064ca6f402abb268362ca615dc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,452 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,061$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.55 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 38c | 560.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 50c | 326.42$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 43c | 256.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 51c | 253.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 217.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 34c | 212.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ac…828bbacked Yes | 73c | 200.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed No | 71c | 187.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 58c | 186.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 181$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 160.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…de85backed Yes | 68c | 149.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 72c | 147.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 9c | 131.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 127.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 77c | 92.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 40c | 80.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 31c | 75.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4fcebacked Yes | 75c | 73.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 72.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 29c | 69.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 68c | 65.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 75c | 63.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 76c | 59.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Yes | 74c | 53.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 69c | 53.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 51.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 40.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 61c | 37.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 69c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 39c | 35.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…8510backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf896…8833backed Yes | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 74c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 71c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.