Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016de88184ea5440dcfca81a58d7007b64842d73c0aa584ca7f8cb565b176262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 668.11$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid | 50c | 386$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 383$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7999backed Team Liquid | 50c | 367.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons | 63c | 273.07$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Falcons | 62c | 198.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Team Falcons | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Falcons | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Liquid | 36c | 70.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 62.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Liquid | 37c | 54.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Liquid | 28c | 50.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Team Falcons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395f…dcacbacked Team Liquid | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Team Falcons | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.