TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$526,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$554,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons33c160,416$53,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,274.7828748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Liquid65c91,855$59,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,450.8611547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Falcons37c65,401$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,500.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Liquid71c57,426$41,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,375.285757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid59c30,587$17,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,602.6754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid61c25,774$15,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,051.7955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Team Falcons40c25,106$10,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,004.924146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Team Falcons41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,149.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid63c14,137$8,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200.489557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Team Liquid71c14,103$9,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.971353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Team Liquid77c13,860$10,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,133.452161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Falcons25c12,048$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.5215047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x806d…f8c7backed Team Falcons6c11,978$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.59560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Liquid56c10,523$5,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.9620159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Falcons35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.9914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Team Falcons45c9,474$4,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.743644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid61c8,076$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.0860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Team Falcons35c8,000$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons40c7,711$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.2764744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons16c5,880$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.7886949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons21c5,542$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.411,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Liquid62c5,490$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.0633746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons34c5,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons38c4,928$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.6827645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Team Falcons35c4,740$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6594245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Team Falcons9c4,647$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.277152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Team Liquid58c4,320$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Team Falcons44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7604245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Liquid65c3,766$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.747357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Falcons38c2,998$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9719943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Liquid65c2,903$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.9557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Team Falcons37c2,886$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0683333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Liquid70c2,843$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.0811359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Team Liquid58c2,835$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.849555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Team Liquid58c2,830$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.518543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.9911839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Team Falcons13c2,380$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.577149.3%35 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed Team Liquid61c2,300$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8971650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Liquid67c2,275$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.5622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Team Liquid76c2,255$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.428950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team Liquid56c2,195$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.8213558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Liquid66c2,184$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.5630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Team Falcons43c2,136$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.48650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Liquid72c2,089$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58526550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Team Liquid78c1,819$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.786266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Team Falcons41c1,815$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.153336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Team Liquid60c1,786$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Team Liquid53c1,750$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.745280.8%42 W · 10 L+8.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Falcons42c1,750$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Team Liquid62c1,749$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.555949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Team Liquid58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.135964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons40c1,697$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6213441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons35c1,680$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.9977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Liquid59c1,596$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.4214744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Team Falcons14c1,544$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Liquid67c1,505$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.514854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Team Liquid70c1,500$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4445450%27 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+34.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Team Falcons2c1,475$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.499651%49 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Team Liquid61c1,430$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.821546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Falcons35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Falcons36c1,380$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4965642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid59c1,356$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.9680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons9c1,263$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Liquid66c1,163$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.5633850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4421…1dd3backed Team Liquid62c1,155$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed Team Falcons1c1,150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Liquid74c1,138$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.0619242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Team Falcons37c1,127$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.867243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons13c1,127$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.232,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Falcons35c1,100$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3897447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Team Liquid59c1,026$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons28c1,025$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.181,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons41c1,010$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.0880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Team Falcons36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3607835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1383…0516backed Team Falcons2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+371.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Team Falcons34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked Team Liquid61c985.68$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.687100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Team Falcons9c963.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.747143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons7c949.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.529047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Team Liquid59c882.6$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.824358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Team Liquid55c838$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.929145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Team Falcons27c814.54$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4912720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xe98e…a046backed Team Liquid64c801.11$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.44438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30422954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Team Falcons16c800$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9634…bd44backed Team Falcons13c780$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.651346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Falcons40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons19c699.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9934154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Team Liquid66c676.89$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.0414965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid57c672.42$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1453757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Falcons41c658.54$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27011955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons11c640.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9816821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…8d29backed Team Liquid55c637.7$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Liquid69c625$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7548352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Team Falcons33c610$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.514259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x766c…bb56backed Team Falcons41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-76.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Falcons42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25233541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Team Falcons9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Liquid60c569.97$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9727737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.